This space will be where I share with you my weekly best bets, gambling nuggets, and Bear Bytes. The episodes focusing on college football will be released by
Big Noon Kickoff
, while the NFL-themed episodes will be released on Fridays. The college football-focused episodes — presented by
Big Noon Kickoff
— will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.Let’s dive into my favorite wagers for Week 4.Last week:
2-2 (6-10 season)
(All times ET)Air Force at San Jose State, 10:30 p.m. Friday,
FS1 and the FOX Sports App
Air Force Falcons
AFA
-6.0
-226
o45.5
San Jose State Spartans
SJSU
+6.0
+184
u45.5
The Falcons have a 3-0 record after beating an FCS (Robert Morris), a FCS that just became an FBS (Sam Houston State), and Utah State, one of the Mountain West’s worst teams.
Auburn
at
AUB
+8.0
+255
o51.5
Texas A&M Aggies
TXA&M
-8.0
-319
u51.5
In their road game against Cal, the Tigers scored 14 points and turned over the ball four times. Payton Thorne completed 9 of 14 passes for 94 yard.
This is a tougher task as the Aggies performed well against Louisiana-Monroe last week. What if Miami’s pretty good? This would certainly change your opinion about that 48-33 defeat, wouldn’t it? A&M is the superior team. I’m not sure that this will be the same as previous years, when there have been some major upsets. A&M’s defense will be tough for Auburn, while Conner Weigman will lead the team to victory.
Northern Illinois
, noon Saturday, CBSSN
+158
o54.5
Northern Illinois Huskies
NIU
-4.0
-189
u54.5
The team scored 11 points against each of Southern Illinois and Nebraska in their last two games. The Huskies’ offense is almost non-existent. I will take the Golden Hurricane, as well as the points in this “drop in classes” after consecutive drubbings by Washington and Oklahoma. PICK: Tulsa (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
Georgia Southern
at
GEOSOU
-6.0
BALLST
+6.0
+195
u61.5
The Eagles lost last week to Wisconsin due to six turnovers. Now Georgia Southern is on the road again to Muncie, Indiana, to face the Cardinals. Ball state was competitive in the first quarter against Kentucky and Georgia and may be catching QB Davis Brin, Georgia Southern, at the right moment — they were the underdogs last week, but let an opportunity to win slip away. Now, they are the favorites on the road, facing a team who hasn’t been terrible defensively so far. This is the perfect sandwich game for the Eagles, who have a home matchup against Coastal Carolina coming up next week. PICK: Ball State (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright) Liberty
at
Florida International
-10.0
-388
+10.0
+302
u54.5
The Flames’ turnover fairy must stop at some point. Liberty has a +8 record on the season, and turnovers played a major role in both wins against Bowling Green and New Mexico State. The 55-27 victory at Buffalo wasn’t a fluke. Now you have to travel again to FIU which is surprisingly 3-1 and may be 4-0. Golden Panthers QB Keyone Jensen is 3-0, and they beat North Texas 46-39 just two weeks ago.
PICK : FIU (+10.5) will lose by less than 10.5 (or win)
No. 3 Texas at Baylor
, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC
3
-652
o49.5
+465
u49.5
After a sleepwalking performance against Wyoming, the Longhorns’ offense is expected to explode. Baylor allowed 42 points to Texas State and Texas has far more offensive players than Bobcats. It was not good last year and I am not sure if this year is any different. Quinn Ewers and that receiving corps should put up points and have a monster day.
PICK: Texas team total Over 33.5 points
Mississippi State
at South Carolina, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, SEC
Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSST
+6.0
+189
o47
-234
u47
There could be residual effects in this match after the Gamecocks hard-fought loss to Georgia by 24-14 last week. The injury to Juice Wells will also be a factor against Mississippi State, who were a non-show against LSU last week. Will Rogers did not forget how to be a quarterback and at some point the Bulldogs will convert over 30% of their third-downs. MSU will be better this week after being humiliated last week.
PICK: Western Michigan (+21.5) to lose by fewer than 21.5 points (or win outright)
Chris “The Bear” Fallica
has covered sports for nearly three decades. He has a passion for college football, but also loves the NFL, Soccer and Tennis. He enjoys MLB, NHL, Horse Racing, Golf, Tennis and MLB. Chris won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational, and placed in the top 10 at the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He has qualified for the NHC Handicapping Championship multiple times. Remember: “The less money you wager, the more you will lose when you do win!” Follow him @
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