Goldman Sacks predicts that the stock market will continue to be turbulent and offers investors ways to profit from the turmoil. John Marshall, the head of derivatives at Goldman Sachs, wrote on Monday that he expects volatility to rise over the next few weeks. According to Marshall, October is historically a turbulent month for the markets. Since 1928, the realized volatility of the S & P 500 has been 25% higher in October compared with other months. This is because companies are under pressure to meet year-end earnings expectations during this crucial season. This choppiness became more apparent in recent decades. Especially in 1997, 2002 and 2008, as well as in 2022. The firm reported that the implied volatility for the S & P500 over a 1-month period increased from 25 to 30 last October. Marshall wrote: “While many people think it’s a coincidence major market corrections occurred in October, the firm believes performance pressures on company managements to meet expectations for full-year earnings and investor (final earnings catalysts of their performance year) are what exacerbates shifts in sentiment during this time of year. To hedge against rising volatility, Marshall recommends that investors purchase VIX October options. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a popular measure for volatility, has fallen by about 35% since 2023. However, Wall Street expects it to rise due to a worsening macroeconomic background and seasonal volatility. CBOE Volatility Index last hovered around 14. Arun Prakash, a representative of the firm, wrote on Thursday that it was advisable to buy CBOE Volatility Index calls expiring monthly in October at $15 in order to protect against a possible rise in volatility. Our volatility model, which is based upon five economic factors, suggests that VIX would average 20.6 by October according to our economists’ predictions compared with 13.5 currently. Prakash also added that historically VIX has risen into October, due to seasonality. Marshall said that option buyers need to focus on stocks and sectors that have fundamental catalysts. Michael Bloom, CNBC’s reporter, contributed to this report.
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