Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds, Picks

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The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-point favorites to beat the Detroit Lions on Thursday, Sept. 7, at 8:20 PM ET on NBC. While the Chiefs will be led by MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes for this first-day matchup, they are likely to be without key players — DT Chris Jones or Travis Kelce. The Lions’ Jared Goff has the best record in Week 1 against the spread, and is the most successful quarterback in the NFL for the last five years. Here’s all you need to know for the NFL odds for the matchup between the Chiefs vs Lions on Thursday. This includes the spread odds, the moneyline, and the total Over/Under. Our betting expert Geoff Schwartz has also provided his pick.

Chiefs vs Lions Betting Information updated as of September 5, 2023, 7:47 PM ET.

Favorite

Spread

Favorite Spread OddsUnderdog Spread OddsTotal

Over Total Odds
Under Total Odds Chiefs -5 -110 -110 53.5 -110
-110 Chiefs vs. Lions Prediction & Pick Pick ATS: Kansas City (-5) Pick OU: Under (53.5) Prediction:

Kansas City 30 – Lions 22

  • Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:It’s Week 1, so I’m keeping it simple. I am betting on the Chiefs offense to score. Kansas City averaged 37.8 in their five opening weekend games under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Over the last five years, the team has scored between 33 and 44 points during Week 1. Kansas City’s offensive depth is the most it has been in many years. The team doesn’t have a No. The Chiefs’ offensive line is the best they have had in five seasons, which is remarkable considering all of their wins. And the Chiefs’ offensive line is the best they’ve had in five seasons, which is remarkable considering all the winning they’ve done.
  • Detroit’s defense ranked 32nd in yards per play last season, allowing over six yards per snap. It’s not good. The Lions were 28th in the league for points allowed per game (25.1). The Chiefs will be able to beat them despite the changes they made to their defense. Kansas City’s offense must also score without Chris Jones, the holdout All Pro defensive tackle who helped their defense shut down Lions. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice
  • , and his status is uncertain for the opener. Despite that news, I like the Chiefs to take care of business in their season opener.PICK: Chiefs team total Over 29.5 points

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Detroit

Game Date:

Thursday, September 7, 2023

Time:

8:20 PM ET

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumLocation:

Kansas City, Missouri

TV:

  • Watch on NBCChiefs vs. Lions Recent Matchups
  • Over their last five meetings, Kansas City has put up three wins versus Detroit.Over their last five head-to-head contests, Kansas City has racked up 147 points, while Detroit has compiled 130.
  • Kansas City Betting InfoKansas City put together a 6-10-1 ATS record last year.
  • The Chiefs’ ATS record as 5-point favorites or greater was 4-7-1 last year.Kansas City and its opponent combined to hit the over in eight of 17 contests last season.
  • The Chiefs won 86.7% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (13-2).Kansas City won all 12 games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -230 or shorter.

The Chiefs have a 69.7% chance to win this matchup based on the moneyline’s implied probability.

  • Chiefs Stats (2022)
  • Stat

Average (Total)

  • Rank
  • Pass yards
  • 297.8 (5,062)
  • 1
  • Rush yards
  • 115.9 (1,970)

20

Points scored 29.2 (496) 1
Pass yards against 220.9 (3,756) 18
Rush yards against 107.2 (1,823) 8
Points allowed 21.7 (369) 16
Kansas City’s Key Players Offense Patrick Mahomes II threw for 5,250 yards last year (to rank first in the NFL), with 41 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He completed 67.1% of his passes while averaging 308.8 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.
On the ground, Mahomes added four rushing touchdowns and 358 rushing yards. Travis Kelce had 1,338 receiving yards (eighth in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns (second in the NFL) on 110 receptions (third in the NFL), while being targeted 152 times. Jerick McKinnon averaged 17.1 rushing yards per game last season (291 total yards), while scoring one rushing touchdown.
McKinnon’s stat sheet included 56 receptions (3.3 per game) on 71 targets for 512 yards (30.1 per game) and nine receiving touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco averaged 48.8 rushing yards per game through 17 games (830 total yards), with five rushing touchdowns. Defense

Nick Bolton had two sacks to go with nine TFL, 180 tackles, and two interceptions over 17 games in 2022.

Drue Tranquill’s stats for the Chargers included one interception as well as 144 tackles, 10 TFL, five sacks, and four passes defended.

  • L’Jarius Sneed had 3.5 sacks as well as five TFL, 108 tackles, and three interceptions in the 2022 campaign.
  • Chris Jones had 15.5 sacks as well as 17 TFL and 44 tackles.
  • Detroit Betting Info
  • Detroit went 12-4-1 ATS last year.
  • Against the spread, as underdogs of 5 points or greater, the Lions went 4-1 last season.
  • Detroit games hit the Over 10 out of 17 times last season.

Last season, the Lions were the underdog 12 times and won six, or 50%, of those games.

  • Detroit had a record of 1-4 when it was set as an underdog of +190 or more by oddsmakers last season.
  • The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 34.5% chance of a victory for the Lions.
  • Lions Stats (2022)
  • Stat

Average (Total)

  • Rank
  • Pass yards
  • 251.8 (4,281)
  • 8
  • Rush yards
  • 128.2 (2,179)

11

Points scored 26.6 (453) 5
Pass yards against 245.8 (4,179) 30
Rush yards against 146.5 (2,491) 29
Points allowed 25.1 (427) 28
Detroit’s Key Players Offense In 17 games last year, Jared Goff racked up 4,438 passing yards (sixth-best in NFL) while throwing 29 TD passes (fifth in NFL) and seven INTs, connecting on 65.1% of his passes.
Amon-Ra St. Brown put together a 2022 stat sheet that included 106 receptions (seventh in the NFL) for 1,161 yards and six receiving TDs in 16 games. He was on the end of 146 targets and averaged 6.6 catches. David Montgomery rushed for five TDs last year for the Bears and totaled 801 yards rushing (50.1 per game and 4 per attempt). In addition to his rushing stats, Montgomery hauled in 34 passes (on 40 targets) for 316 yards with one receiving TD. He averaged 19.8 receiving yards per game.
Marvin Jones Jr. picked up 529 yards and three TDs from 46 receptions and 81 targets for the Jaguars. Defense Alex Anzalone’s output in 2022 included 125 tackles, seven TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 17 games.

Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks plus nine TFL, 52 tackles, and three interceptions.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson had 67 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and six interceptions in 2022 for the Eagles.

  • Kerby Joseph’s stats for the year included 74 tackles and four interceptions over 17 games.
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