Jose Luis Villegas/AP
The presidential race of 2024 could be historic for a variety of reasons. The frontrunner for the Republican nomination, the former president Donald Trump, is only the 5th ex-president who has run for office. If he were to be nominated to face President Biden, this would only be the 7th presidential rematch ever. The most notable fact is that former president Donald Trump was indicted on 91 counts and impeached two times.
According to the latest NPR/
PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, most Americans think Trump has done something wrong. Given the multiple investigations against him, three-quarters of Americans see wrongdoing on Trump’s part: 49% believe he has done something illegal, and 26% believe he has done something unethical but not illegal.Meanwhile, House Republicans are pursuing impeachment against the sitting Democratic president (albeit with no evidence of illegal activity).
A majority, though a smaller one, sees wrongdoing by Biden in relation to his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings: 38% believe the president has done something illegal, while 25% believe he has done something unethical but not illegal.
That’s despite the two men being in vastly different legal situations. Biden has not been charged with any crimes in relation to his son’s dealings. Meanwhile, the House GOP has yet to present evidence of Biden’s criminal activity. Meanwhile, the House GOP has yet to present evidence of any crimes by Biden.
Unsurprisingly, these poll figures differ widely by party:
Nine in 10 Republicans believe Biden has done something wrong in connection to his son’s business dealings, along with 7 in 10 independents.
- In contrast, 1 in 3 Democrats believe the same.
- Almost all Democrats — 97% — believe Trump has done something wrong, along with three-quarters of independents.
- Around half of Republicans believe the same.
- Notably, two-thirds of Republicans who said they preferred Trump said they would want him to be president even if he is convicted of a crime. That’s a solid majority, but it also could be a heavy blow to his reelection.
Independents’ reaction to a conviction could also greatly diminish Trump’s reelection chances. Half of all independents favor Trump over Biden, who has 42%. Only one-third of independents who support Trump say that they would want him to be president even if he was convicted of a criminal offense.
On June 11, Trump supporters gathered at Tropical Park, Miami. A car was adorned with a flag that depicted former President Donald Trump in the superhero role. The sign called for Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son and President Biden himself to be charged instead of Trump.
Usually at this point in a presidential election cycle, hypothetical matchups are not very meaningful, as voters have not yet gotten to know the various primary candidates.
And it’s true that any polling matchup between Biden and Trump is still hypothetical until the GOP nominates a candidate.
But Trump also remains by far the most popular GOP primary candidate. Trump is viewed favorably by 74% of Republicans, Republican-leaning Independents and those who are not Republicans. Ron DeSantis is viewed favorably by a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, but he’s well behind Trump on that measure with 58%. Ron DeSantis, is viewed favorably by a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and he’s well behind Trump on that measure, with 58%.Enthusiasm is stronger for Trump than for BidenWithin their parties, both candidates are relatively popular — about three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be satisfied to some degree with Biden as their party’s nominee, and three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the same of Trump.
However, the poll shows Trump’s voters have more enthusiasm — 43% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would be “very satisfied” with him as their nominee. That is compared with 30% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who would be “very satisfied” to have Biden at the top of the ticket.
And that also leaves both candidates with 1 in 4 of their party’s voters unsatisfied.
Art Frasca, a Republican from Waterford, Mich., is one of those voters. He voted for Trump before, but he does not want him to be president again. He doesn’t dislike the former president, but he believes Trump’s personality makes him ineffective. “I believe people will stop him because of his personality.” “I don’t believe we can afford it. She said: “I think Biden is too old to run again.” I would not have expected that my great-grandfather, who started to slip, could be president. And it appears that Biden is also slipping. “
But her frustration also goes deeper — Tyndall has grown disgusted with both political parties.
“They never tend to do anything that’s actually beneficial to the country,” she said. “They only care about fighting with each other. Biden’s favorability rating is negative 7 percentage points (44% of registered voters see him favorably, compared to 51% unfavorably), whereas Trump’s is negative 19 percentage points (38% favorable to 57% unfavorable). Biden’s is at negative 7 percentage points (44% of registered voters see him favorably, compared with 51% unfavorably), whereas Trump’s is at negative 19 percentage points (38% favorable to 57% unfavorable).
In addition, roughly one-quarter (26%) of registered voters would like to see neither Biden nor Trump be elected president again in 2024.
Unclear spoiler effect for third-party candidates
Given the share of voters who dislike both Biden and Trump, there has been significant interest in a third-party candidate. However, the poll shows that a Biden-Trump race would remain competitive, even with third-party candidates.
Given the choice of Biden, Trump, a generic Green Party candidate, a generic Libertarian candidate or another generic third-party candidate, 20% of registered voters chose someone other than Biden or Trump or were undecided. Biden received 40% of registered voters compared to Trump’s only 39%.